Next Dutch general election
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By May 2030
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All 150 seats in the House of Representatives 76 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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General elections are scheduled to be held in the Netherlands in May 2030 to elect the members of the House of Representatives, but may be held at an earlier date if a snap election is called.
Background
[edit | edit source]The 2025 Dutch general election resulted in losses for all parties in the Schoof cabinet. Democrats 66 (D66) obtained 26 seats to became the largest party in the House of Representatives for the first time, along with Party for Freedom (PVV). GroenLinks (GL) and the Labour Party (PvdA) are set to merge their parties in 2026.[1]
Regular general elections in the Netherlands are held in March, at least four years after the previous general election. However, due to municipal elections already taking place in March 2030, general elections would instead be held in May 2030.[2]
Electoral system
[edit | edit source]Pursuant to articles C.1, C.2 and C.3 of the electoral law, elections for the House of Representatives take place every four years, unless a snap election is called. The 150 members of the House of Representatives are elected by semi-open list proportional representation. The number of seats per list is determined using the D'Hondt method. A list must receive a number of votes equal to or exceeding the Hare quota (1 full seat) in order to qualify for seat distribution, meaning there is an electoral threshold of 0.67%.[3]
Voters have the option to cast a preferential vote. The seats won by a list are first allocated to the candidates who, in preferential votes, have received at least 25% of the Hare quota (effectively ¼ of a seat or 0.17% of the total votes), regardless of their placement on the electoral list. If multiple candidates from a list pass this threshold, their ordering is determined based on the number of votes received. Any remaining seats are allocated to candidates according to their position on the electoral list.[4][5]
Opinion polls
[edit | edit source]
Seats
[edit | edit source]There are 150 seats in total, 76 seats are needed for a majority. Parties are denoted with a dash if no indication is given of their level in the polls.
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
D66 | PVV | VVD | GL-PvdA | CDA | JA21 | FvD | BBB | Denk | SGP | PvdD | CU | SP | 50+ | Volt | Lead | Ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peil.nl | 19 Dec 2025 | – | 28 | 20 | 22 | 20 | 17 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | [6] |
| Ipsos I&O | 12–15 Dec 2025 | 1,958 | 28 | 24 | 21 | 21 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | [7] |
| Peil.nl | 29 Nov 2025 | – | 28 | 23 | 22 | 19 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | [8] |
| Verian | 21–24 Nov 2025 | 1,550 | 31 | 22 | 20 | 16 | 20 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | [9] |
| Peil.nl | 22 Nov 2025 | – | 28 | 23 | 23 | 18 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | [10] |
| Peil.nl | 7–8 Nov 2025 | – | 28 | 24 | 22 | 18 | 18 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | [11] |
| Jesse Klaver succeeds Frans Timmermans as leader of GL-PvdA[12] | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2025 election | 29 Oct 2025 | – | 26 | 26 | 22 | 20 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | Tie | |
Vote share
[edit | edit source]| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
D66 | PVV | VVD | GL-PvdA | CDA | JA21 | FvD | BBB | Denk | SGP | PvdD | CU | SP | 50+ | Volt | Lead | Ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verian | 21–24 Nov 2025 | 1,958 | 20.3% | 14.3% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 13.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 6.0% | [13] |
| 2025 election | 29 Oct 2025 | – | 16.94% | 16.66% | 14.24% | 12.79% | 11.79% | 5.95% | 4.54% | 2.65% | 2.37% | 2.25% | 2.08% | 1.90% | 1.89% | 1.43% | 1.10% | 0.28% |
Notes
[edit | edit source]References
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