Next Irish general election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to navigation Jump to search

Next Irish general election
Republic of Ireland
← 2024
No later than January 2030
174 seats in Dáil Éireann
88 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
Fianna Fáil Micheál Martin Lua error in Module:European_and_national_party_data/config at line 229: attempt to index field 'data' (a nil value).
Sinn Féin Mary Lou McDonald Lua error in Module:European_and_national_party_data/config at line 229: attempt to index field 'data' (a nil value).
Fine Gael Simon Harris Lua error in Module:European_and_national_party_data/config at line 229: attempt to index field 'data' (a nil value).
Social Democrats Holly Cairns Lua error in Module:European_and_national_party_data/config at line 229: attempt to index field 'data' (a nil value).
Labour Ivana Bacik Lua error in Module:European_and_national_party_data/config at line 229: attempt to index field 'data' (a nil value).
Independent Ireland Michael Collins Lua error in Module:European_and_national_party_data/config at line 229: attempt to index field 'data' (a nil value).
PBP–Solidarity Collective leadership Lua error in Module:European_and_national_party_data/config at line 229: attempt to index field 'data' (a nil value).
Aontú Peadar Tóibín Lua error in Module:European_and_national_party_data/config at line 229: attempt to index field 'data' (a nil value).
Green Roderic O'Gorman Lua error in Module:European_and_national_party_data/config at line 229: attempt to index field 'data' (a nil value).
100% Redress Tomas Seán Devine Lua error in Module:European_and_national_party_data/config at line 229: attempt to index field 'data' (a nil value).
Independent — Lua error in Module:European_and_national_party_data/config at line 229: attempt to index field 'data' (a nil value).
Ceann Comhairle Verona Murphy 1
Vacant 2
Incumbent Taoiseach
Micheál Martin
Fianna Fáil

The next Irish general election to elect the 35th Dáil must be held no later than January 2030.

Date of election

[edit | edit source]

The 34th Dáil first met on 18 December 2024. Electoral law provides that the "same Dáil shall not continue for a longer period than five years from the date of its first meeting".[1] It must therefore be dissolved no later than 17 December 2029. The taoiseach may advise the president to dissolve at any time. If a taoiseach has ceased to retain the support of the majority of the Dáil, the president may in their absolute discretion refuse to dissolve the Dáil. To date, no president has refused to dissolve the Dáil.

When the Dáil is dissolved, the Clerk of the Dáil must issue a writ of election to the returning officer for each constituency.[2] The election must take place on a date set by the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage 18 to 25 days (disregarding any excluded day, being Sundays, public holidays and Good Friday) after the writs have been issued.[3][4][5]

Electoral system

[edit | edit source]
Main article: Single transferable vote

There are currently 174 TDs returned in 43 Dáil constituencies of between three and five seats each. The Electoral Commission will be required to review the size of the Dáil and the arrangement of constituencies after the 2027 census.

Under the system of single transferable vote (STV), each voter may mark any number of the candidates in order of preference. The quota is determined at the first count in each constituency by dividing the number of valid ballots by one more than the number of seats (for example, a quarter of the valid ballots in a three-seat constituency, a fifth of those in a four-seat constituency, and a sixth of those in a five-seat constituency) and then adding one vote. Any candidate reaching or exceeding the quota is elected.[6]

If in the first count fewer candidates reach the quota than the number of seats to be filled, if any successful candidates have more votes than the quota, their surplus is distributed to remaining candidates based on the next usable marked preference on the ballot papers. If it still happens that fewer candidates have reached the quota than the number of seats to be filled, the last-placed candidate is excluded from the count and those ballot papers are transferred to the next usable marked preference. This is repeated until sufficient candidates have reached the quota to fill the available seats, or where a seat remains to be filled in a constituency and no candidate is capable of achieving a quota as there is nobody left to eliminate for a distribution, then the highest place candidate, even if not having quota, is deemed elected.[7]

The Ceann Comhairle (Verona Murphy, since December 2024) immediately before the dissolution of the 34th Dáil will automatically be deemed to be elected a member of the 35th Dáil, unless she decides not to seek re-election. This is provided for under the Constitution and electoral law.[8]

Opinion polls

[edit | edit source]
Opinion polling for Irish general elections
Previous
← 2024 polling

Graphical summary

[edit | edit source]
File:Ireland 2030 polls.svg

Polls

[edit | edit source]
Last date
of polling 		Commissioner Polling firm Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Sources FF FG SF SD Lab Aon II GP PBP–S O/I[nb 1]
5 Dec 2025 Sunday Independent Ireland Thinks 1,069 3.1 [p 1] 20 17 24 8 5 5 5 2 3 11
26 Nov 2025 Business Post Red C 1,010 3.0 [p 2] 18 17 22 8 4 6 4 3 2 14
31 Oct 2025 Sunday Independent Ireland Thinks 1,609 2.5 [p 3] 18 19 23 9 5 6 5 2 3 10
21 Oct 2025 Business Post Red C 1,012 ~3.0 [p 4] 17 19 23 9 4 4 5 3 3 12
15 Oct 2025 The Irish Times Ipsos B&A 1,200 2.8 [p 5][p 6] 17 18 27 5 6 3 2 3 2 17
3 Oct 2025 Sunday Independent Ireland Thinks 1,500 2.3 [p 7] 20 21 21 8 4 6 4 1 3 11
9 Sep 2025 Business Post Red C 1,003 3.0 [p 8] 18 19 21 7 4 3 6 3 4 15
5 Sep 2025 Sunday Independent Ireland Thinks ~1,500 2.3 [p 9] 22 21 20 7 4 4 4 2 3 13
1 Aug 2025 Sunday Independent Ireland Thinks 1,319 2.7 [p 10] 20 20 20 8 4 4 5 1 3 14
15 Jul 2025 The Irish Times Ipsos B&A 1,200 2.8 [p 11] 22 17 22 6 4 2 – [nb 2] 3 2 22
4 Jul 2025 Sunday Independent Ireland Thinks 1,532 2.3 [p 12] 19 20 20 8 5 5 6 2 3 11
25 Jun 2025 Business Post Red C 1,008 3.0 [p 13] 19 18 21 7 4 5 5 3 3 14
30 May 2025 Sunday Independent Ireland Thinks 1,857 2.3 [p 14] 21 21 20 9 5 5 5 1 3 10
22 May 2025 Business Post Red C 1,000 3.0 [p 15] 20 19 22 7 5 4 4 3 3 13
2 May 2025 Sunday Independent Ireland Thinks 1,649 2.5 [p 16][p 17] 23 20 22 8 4 4 5 2 3 9
23 Apr 2025 Business Post Red C 1,000 3.0 [p 18] 20 20 24 7 3 5 5 3 3 10
17 Apr 2025 The Irish Times Ipsos B&A 1,200 2.8 [p 19] 22 16 26 7 4 1 – [nb 2] 3 3 17
4 Apr 2025 Sunday Independent Ireland Thinks 2,072 2.2 [p 20] 25 21 21 8 4 4 4 2 3 9
26 Mar 2025 Business Post Red C 1,002 3.0 [p 21] 22 17 22 7 4 4 4 3 3 13
28 Feb 2025 Sunday Independent Ireland Thinks 1,373 2.7 [p 22] 22 22 21 7 4 3 5 2 2 11
19 Feb 2025 Business Post Red C 1,029 3.0 [p 23] 20 20 23 7 4 4 4 3 3 11
1 Feb 2025 Sunday Independent Ireland Thinks 1,591 2.5 [p 24][p 25] 24 20 22 8 4 4 4 3 2 9
22 Jan 2025 Business Post Red C 1,003 3.1 [p 26] 22 20 22 7 3 4 3 3 2 13
11 Jan 2025 Sunday Independent Ireland Thinks 1,206 2.9 [p 27] 23.8 22.3 19.3 7.3 3.8 5.3 4.9 2.3 2.2 8.8
29 November 2024 General election – – – – 21.9 20.8 19.0 4.8 4.7 3.9 3.6 3.0 2.8 15.5
Notes
  1. ^ The figure for "Others and Independents" is the remainder when all others are removed. As with all such calculations, the figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects.
  2. ^ a b Not specifically mentioned in the report.

References

[edit | edit source]
Notes
Poll references
  1. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  2. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  3. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  4. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  5. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  6. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  7. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  8. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  9. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  10. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  11. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  12. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  13. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  14. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  15. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  16. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  17. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  18. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  19. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  20. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  21. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  22. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  23. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  24. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  25. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  26. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  27. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
General references
  1. ^ Electoral Act 1992, s. 33: Maximum duration of Dáil (No. 23 of 1992, s. 33). Enacted on 5 November 1992. Act of the Oireachtas. Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 8 June 2021.
  2. ^ Electoral Act 1992, s. 39: Issue and return of writs (No. 23 of 1992, s. 39). Enacted on 5 November 1992. Act of the Oireachtas. Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 8 June 2021.
  3. ^ Electoral Act 1992, s. 96: Times of poll (No. 23 of 1992, s. 96). Enacted on 5 November 1992. Act of the Oireachtas. Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 8 June 2021.; Electoral (Amendment) Act 2001, s. 23: Amendment of section 96 of Principal Act (No. 38 of 2001, s. 23). Enacted on 24 October 2001. Act of the Oireachtas. Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 8 June 2021.
  4. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  5. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  6. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  7. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).; Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  8. ^ Electoral Act 1992, s. 36: Re-election of outgoing Chairman of Dáil (No. 23 of 1992, s. 36). Enacted on 5 November 1992. Act of the Oireachtas. Archived from the original on 8 December 2015. Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 16 June 2020.
Retrieved from "http://70.231.62.181/index.php?title=Next_Irish_general_election&oldid=20236996"