Next French legislative election
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By June 2029
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All 577 seats in the National Assembly 289 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in France by 2029 to elect all 577 members of the 18th National Assembly of the Fifth French Republic.[1] However, given the current political crisis, a dissolution of the National Assembly for a snap election is possible before even the presidential election.[2][3][needs update]
Background
[edit | edit source]The 2024 elections resulted in a hung parliament and four minority governments led by Michel Barnier, François Bayrou, and Sébastien Lecornu, all being appointed by Emmanuel Macron. Both Barnier and Bayrou's governments collapsed as a result of confidence votes. Lecornu initially resigned 14 hours after presenting his first government, before being reappointed by Macron four days later.
The absence of a stable majority means the current government constantly lives under the threat of a vote of no confidence as well as losing parliamentary votes, leading to speculations of snap elections taking place well ahead of 2029.[4][5][6]
Electoral system
[edit | edit source]The 577 members of the National Assembly, known as deputies, are elected for five years by a two-round system in single-member constituencies. A candidate who receives an absolute majority of valid votes and a vote total greater than 25% of the registered electorate is elected in the first round. If no candidate reaches this threshold, a runoff election is held between the top two candidates plus any other candidate who received a vote total greater than 12.5% of registered voters. The candidate who receives the most votes in the second round is elected.[7]
Opinion polling
[edit | edit source]
| Polling firm | Date | Sample size | EXG | NFP | DVG | ECO | ENS | DVC | LR | DVD | DLF | RN and allies | REC | Others | Lead | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LFI | LE | PCF | PS | UDR | RN | ||||||||||||||
| — | 10 Oct 2025 | Second Lecornu government formed | |||||||||||||||||
| Ifop[8] | 7–8 Oct 2025 | 1,386 | 1% | 24% | 4% | – | 14% | – | 12% | 3% | 1% | 35% | 4% | 2% | 11% | ||||
| 1% | 8% | 19% | 3% | – | 13% | – | 11% | 2.5% | 1% | 36% | 3.5% | 2% | 19% | ||||||
| 1% | 10% | 17% | 3% | – | 13% | – | 11% | 2% | 1% | 36% | 4% | 2% | 19% | ||||||
| OpinionWay[9] | 6–7 Oct 2025 | 1,012 | 2% | 24% | – | – | 16% | – | 13% | – | – | 34% | 5% | 6% | 10% | ||||
| 2% | 13% | 13% | – | – | 15% | – | 13% | – | – | 33% | 5% | 6% | 18% | ||||||
| 2% | 9% | 18% | – | – | 14% | – | 12% | – | – | 33% | 6% | 6% | 15% | ||||||
| — | 5–6 Oct 2025 | First Lecornu government dissolved | |||||||||||||||||
| — | 8–9 Sep 2025 | Bayrou government dissolved; First Lecornu government formed | |||||||||||||||||
| Ifop[10] | 5–8 Sep 2025 | 1,089 | 1.5% | 24% | 5% | – | 14% | – | 12% | 2.5% | 2% | 34% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 10% | ||||
| 1% | 9% | 19% | 3% | – | 14% | – | 12% | 2% | 2% | 33% | 4% | 1% | 14% | ||||||
| Cluster17[11] | 5–7 Sep 2025 | 1,133 | 1% | 25% | 5.5% | – | 14% | 1% | 13% | 2% | 1.5% | 29% | 4% | 4% | 4% | ||||
| 1% | 11% | 16% | 3% | – | 13% | 1% | 13% | 2% | 1.5% | 29% | 4.5% | 5% | 13% | ||||||
| 1% | 14% | 14% | 3% | – | 12.5% | 1% | 12% | 3% | 1.5% | 29% | 4% | 5% | 15% | ||||||
| Harris[12] | 4–5 Sep 2025 | 2,017 | 1% | 26% | 6% | – | 16% | – | 10% | – | – | 33% | 5% | 3% | 7% | ||||
| 1% | 10% | 19% | 4% | – | 16% | – | 10% | – | – | 33% | 5% | 3% | 14% | ||||||
| Ifop[13] | 29 Aug–1 Sep 2025 | 1,369 | 1% | 25% | 5% | – | 15% | – | 13% | 2% | 1.5% | 33% | 4% | 0.5% | 8% | ||||
| 1% | 11% | 15% | 4% | – | 15% | – | 13% | 3% | 1.5% | 32% | 3.5% | 1% | 17% | ||||||
| Elabe[14] | 28–29 Aug 2025 | 1,563 | 2% | 23.5% | 6.5% | – | 14% | – | 10.5% | 2.5% | – | 31.5% | 5% | 4.5% | 8.0% | ||||
| 1.5% | 10% | 16.5% | 5% | – | 13.5% | – | 10.5% | 3% | – | 31% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 14.5% | ||||||
| Elabe[15] | 3–5 Jun 2025 | 1,496 | 2% | 21% | 6.5% | – | 15.5% | – | 10% | 3.5% | – | 32.5% | 3% | 6% | 11.5% | ||||
| 1.5% | 10% | 16% | 3.5% | – | 15.5% | – | 10.5% | 3% | – | 33% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 17% | ||||||
| Ifop[16] | 3–4 Jun 2025 | 1,385 | 0.5% | 21% | 7% | – | 18% | – | 11% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 35% | 2% | 1.5% | 14% | |||
| 1% | 11% | 13% | 4% | – | 18% | – | 11% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 35% | 2% | 1.5% | 17% | |||||
| 0.5% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 12% | 3% | – | 16% | – | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0.5% | 34% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 18% | |||
| Ifop[17] | 5–6 Feb 2025 | 1,377 | 1% | 14% | 13% | 2% | – | 15% | – | 13% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 35% | 3% | 1% | 21% | ||
| 1.5% | 8% | 19% | 2.5% | – | 15% | – | 12% | 1% | 1% | 0.5% | 35% | 3% | 1.5% | 16% | |||||
| — | 4–13 Dec 2024 | Barnier government dissolved; Bayrou government formed | |||||||||||||||||
| — | 5 Sep 2024 | Beginning of French political crisis: Attal government dissolved; Barnier government formed | |||||||||||||||||
| 2024 Election Results[18] | 30 Jun 2024 | — | 1.14% | 28.21% | 1.57% | 0.57% | 21.28% | 1.22% | 6.57% | 3.60% | 0.28% | 3.96% | 29.26% | 0.75% | 1.60% | 1.05% | |||
Notes
[edit | edit source]References
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- ^ https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/index.html Ministry of the Interior
