Projected National Share

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to navigation Jump to search

File:Palace of Westminster London 2023 01.jpg
Projected National Share suggests the possible result of a general election based on voting patterns in any given local election (pictured Palace of Westminster).

Projected National Share (PNS) is a statistic used in British politics. It refers to the translation of local election results to reflect national party support in a future general election.[1] PNS shows which party has won a local election.[2] The numbers give an impression of how the political parties are faring if the entire country cast a local ballot.[3] PNS can be calculated in different ways.[4]

History

[edit | edit source]

BBC News has calculated PNS since 1982.[5] They use key wards which are reflective of the country as a whole in order to calculate party share.[6] Two academics at the University of Plymouth, Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, calculate National Equivalent share (NEV) using a different approach.[7][8]

Author and peer Mark Pack maintains a historical record named LocalBase of both sets of results.[7][9]

By local election

[edit | edit source]
Election Lab Con Lib Dem Other* UKIP Ref Grn Ref.
2016 31 30 15 — 12 — — [10]
2022 35 30 19 16 — — — [11]
2023 35 26 20 19 — — — [12]
2024 34 25 17 24 — — — [13]
2025 20 15 17 7 — 30 11 [14][15]

*Independents, residents associations and minor parties

References

[edit | edit source]
  1. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  2. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  3. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  4. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  5. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  6. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  7. ^ a b Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  8. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  9. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  10. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  11. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  12. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  13. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  14. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  15. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
Retrieved from "http://70.231.62.181/index.php?title=Projected_National_Share&oldid=22401488"