2018 Arkansas gubernatorial election
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| File:Flag of Arkansas.svg | |||||||||||||||||
November 6, 2018
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Hutchinson: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Henderson: 40-50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Arkansas |
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| Seal of Arkansas |
The 2018 Arkansas gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of Arkansas, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor Asa Hutchinson won re-election to a second term, winning by more than 33 percentage points and carrying all but seven counties, marking the largest winning margin of any Republican gubernatorial candidate in Arkansas history.
Republican primary
[edit | edit source]Candidates
[edit | edit source]Declared
[edit | edit source]Declined
[edit | edit source]- Tim Griffin, lieutenant governor and former U.S. representative (running for re-election)[5][6]
- Leslie Rutledge, attorney general (running for re-election)[1]
- John Thurston, land commissioner (running for Secretary of State)[1]
Endorsements
[edit | edit source]Asa Hutchinson
Polling
[edit | edit source]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Asa Hutchinson |
Jan Morgan |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendrix College[10] | April 17–19, 2018 | 676 | ± 3.8% | 58% | 31% | 12% |
Results
[edit | edit source]Hutchinson
- 80–90%
- 70–80%
- 60–70%
- 50–60%
Morgan
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Asa Hutchinson (incumbent) | 145,251 | 69.7 | |
| Republican | Jan Morgan | 63,009 | 30.3 | |
| Total votes | 208,260 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
[edit | edit source]Candidates
[edit | edit source]Declared
[edit | edit source]- Jared Henderson, former Arkansas executive director of Teach For America[11]
- Leticia Sanders, hairdresser[12]
Declined
[edit | edit source]- Keith Ingram, Minority Leader of the Arkansas Senate[1]
- Jay Martin, former Majority Leader of the Arkansas House of Representatives[13][14]
- Kevin Smith, mayor of Helena-West Helena, Arkansas, former Majority Whip of the Arkansas Senate, former Democratic candidate in 1996 United States Senate election in Arkansas
Results
[edit | edit source]Henderson
- 70–80%
- 60–70%
- 50–60%
Sanders
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jared Henderson | 68,340 | 63.4 | |
| Democratic | Leticia Sanders | 39,382 | 36.6 | |
| Total votes | 107,722 | 100.0 | ||
Independents
[edit | edit source]Candidates
[edit | edit source]Declined
[edit | edit source]- Bobby Bones, radio host[15][16]
Libertarian primary
[edit | edit source]Candidates
[edit | edit source]Declared
[edit | edit source]- Mark West (Libertarian), pastor and nominee for AR-01 in 2016[17][18]
General election
[edit | edit source]Predictions
[edit | edit source]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[19] | Safe R | October 26, 2018 |
| The Washington Post[20] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[21] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[22] | Safe R | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[24] | Safe R | November 4, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[25] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[26][a] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| Politico[27] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Governing[28] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
- Notes
- ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
Debates
[edit | edit source]| Dates | Location | Hutchinson | Henderson | West | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 12, 2018 | Little Rock, Arkansas | Didn't participate | Participant | Participant | Full debate[29] - YouTube |
| October 12, 2018 | Conway, Arkansas | Participant | Participant | Participant | Full debate[30] - C-SPAN |
Polling
[edit | edit source]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Asa Hutchinson (R) |
Jared Henderson (D) |
Mark West (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Arkansas[31] | October 1–28, 2018 | 618 | ± 3.9% | 59% | 35% | – | 6% | – |
| Hendrix College[32] | October 18–19, 2018 | 528 | ± 4.3% | 60% | 24% | 5% | – | 11% |
| Hendrix College[33] | September 5–7, 2018 | 1,701 | ± 2.4% | 60% | 25% | 6% | – | 9% |
| Mason-Dixon[34] | March 21–24, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 63% | 24% | – | – | 13% |
Results
[edit | edit source]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Asa Hutchinson (incumbent) | 582,406 | 65.33% | +9.89% | |
| Democratic | Jared Henderson | 283,218 | 31.77% | −9.72% | |
| Libertarian | Mark West | 25,885 | 2.90% | +0.98% | |
| Total votes | 891,509 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit | edit source]- Ashley (largest city: Crossett)
- Bradley (largest city: Warren)
- Clark (largest city: Arkadelphia)
- Dallas (largest city: Fordyce)
- Desha (largest city: Dumas)
- Drew (largest city: Monticello)
- Jackson (largest city: Newport)
- Lafayette (largest city: Stamps)
- Lincoln (largest city: Star City)
- Little River (largest city: Ashdown)
- Mississippi (largest city: Osceola)
- Monroe (largest city: Clarendon)
- Nevada (largest city: Prescott)
- Ouachita (largest city: Camden)
- Pike (largest city: Glenwood)
- Woodruff (largest city: Augusta)
By congressional district
[edit | edit source]Hutchinson won all four congressional districts.[36]
| District | Hutchinson | Henderson | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 69% | 27% | Rick Crawford |
| 2nd | 59% | 39% | French Hill |
| 3rd | 66% | 31% | Steve Womack |
| 4th | 69% | 28% | Bruce Westerman |
See also
[edit | edit source]References
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- ^ Hendrix College
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- ^ Full debate
- ^ Full debate
- ^ University of Arkansas
- ^ Hendrix College
- ^ Hendrix College
- ^ Mason-Dixon
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External links
[edit | edit source]Official campaign websites
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