2016 Florida Democratic presidential primary

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2016 Florida Democratic presidential primary

← 2008
March 15, 2016 (2016-03-15)
2020 →
← NI
IL →
 
Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Home state New York Vermont
Delegate count 141 73
Popular vote 1,101,414[1] 568,839
Percentage 64.4% 33.3%

File:2016 Florida Democratic Presidential Primary by couny.svg
Results by county
Clinton:      40-50%      50-60%      60-70%      70-80%
Sanders:      40-50%      50-60%

The 2016 Florida Democratic presidential primary took place on March 15 in the U.S. state of Florida as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

On the same day, the Democratic Party held primaries in Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio, while the Republican Party held primaries in the same five states, including their own Florida primary, plus the Northern Mariana Islands.

Clinton's landslide was fueled by support from retirees,[2] Jewish[2] and Latino[3] voters in South Florida.

Debates and forums

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March 2016 debate in Miami

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On March 9, 2016, the Democratic Party held an eighth presidential debate at Miami Dade College in Miami, Florida. It was broadcast through a partnership between Univision and The Washington Post.

Opinion polling

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Poll source Date 1st 2nd Other
Official Primary results[4] March 15, 2016 Hillary Clinton
64.4%
Bernie Sanders
33.3%
Other
2.3%
ARG[5]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

March 11–13, 2016 Hillary Clinton
58%
Bernie Sanders
37%
Others / Undecided 5%
Quinnipiac[6]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 519

March 8–13, 2016 Hillary Clinton
60%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Others / Undecided 6%
Public Policy Polling[7]

Margin of error: ± 3.9%
Sample size: 627

March 11–12, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
32%
Others / Undecided 11%
CBS News/YouGov[8]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 796

March 9–11, 2016 Hillary Clinton
62%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Others / Undecided 4%
Florida Atlantic University[9]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 414

March 8–11, 2016 Hillary Clinton
59%
Bernie Sanders
31%
Others / Undecided 10%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist[10]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 500

March 4–10, 2016 Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Others / Undecided 5%
WTSP/Mason-Dixon[11]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 500

March 7–9, 2016 Hillary Clinton
68%
Bernie Sanders
23%
Others / Undecided 9%
Quinnipiac[12]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 511

March 2–7, 2016 Hillary Clinton
62%
Bernie Sanders
32%
Others / Undecided 6%
SurveyUSA/Bay News 9/News 13[13]

Margin of error: ± 3.4%
Sample size: 823

March 4–6, 2016 Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
30%
Others / Undecided 9%
CNN/ORC[14]

Margin of error: ± 6.0%
Sample size: 264

March 2–6, 2016 Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Others / Undecided 5%
Wash Post/Univision[15]

Margin of error: ± 6.0%
Sample size: 449

March 2–5, 2016 Hillary Clinton
64%
Bernie Sanders
26%
Others / Undecided 10%
University of North Florida[16]

Margin of error: ± 3.7%
Sample size: 685

February 22–27, 2016 Hillary Clinton
54%
Bernie Sanders
24%
Others / Undecided 22%
Public Policy Polling[17]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 388

February 24–25, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
32%
Others / Undecided 11%
Gravis Marketing[18]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 514

February 24, 2016 Hillary Clinton
58%
Bernie Sanders
42%
Quinnipiac[19]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 476

February 21–24, 2016 Hillary Clinton
59%
Bernie Sanders
33%
Others / Undecided 8%
Florida Southern College[20]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample Size: 608

January 30 – February 6, 2016 Hillary Clinton
43%
Bernie Sanders
26%
Others / Undecided 31%
Florida Atlantic University[21]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample Size: 371

January 15–18, 2016 Hillary Clinton
62%
Bernie Sanders
26%
Martin O'Malley 2%
Not Reported
Polls in 2015
Poll source Date 1st 2nd Other
Florida Atlantic University[21]

Margin of error: ± 5.2%
Sample Size: 355

November 15–16, 2015 Hillary Clinton
66%
Bernie Sanders
22%
Martin O'Malley 4%
Other 4.5%
Undecided 3.7%
Bay News 9/ News13[22]

Margin of error: ± 3.9%
Sample size: 826

October 28 – November 1, 2015 Hillary Clinton
66%
Bernie Sanders
24%
Martin O'Malley 3%
Other 2%
Undecided 6%
Saint Leo University Polling Institute[23]

Margin of error: ±6.0%
Sample size: 165

October 17–22, 2015 Hillary Clinton
50.9%
Joe Biden 15.2% Bernie Sanders 13.3%
Unsure/Don't Know 8.5%
Quinnipiac University[24]

Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 411

September 25 – October 5, 2015 Hillary Clinton
43%
Joe Biden
19%
Bernie Sanders 19%
Someone else/Undecided 13%
Public Policy Polling[25]

Margin of error: ± 5.1%
Sample size: 368

September 11–13, 2015 Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
18%
Joe Biden 17%
Martin O'Malley 2%
Jim Webb 1%
Lincoln Chafee 1%
Lawrence Lessig 0%
Someone else/Undecided 6%
Gravis Marketing[26]

Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 693

September 5–11, 2015 Hillary Clinton
41.6%
Joe Biden
21.4%
Bernie Sanders 12.5%
Martin O'Malley 1.5%
Jim Webb 1.3%
Lincoln Chafee 0.4%
Unsure 21.3%
Quinnipiac University[27]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 419

Posted September 4, 2015 Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
20%
Joe Biden 15%
Lincoln Chafee 4%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Jim Webb 1%
Other 1%
Undecided 6%
Quinnipiac University[28]

Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 345

August 7–18, 2015 Hillary Clinton
48%
Bernie Sanders
15%
Joe Biden 11%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Jim Webb 1%
Lincoln Chafee 0%
Other 2%
Wouldn't vote 6%
Undecided 17%
St Pete Polls[29]

Margin of error: ± 3.0%
Sample size: 1080

July 18–28, 2015 Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
29%
Jim Webb 2%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Lincoln Chafee <1%
Unsure or someone else 13%
Mason-Dixon[30]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 500

July 20–23, 2015 Hillary Clinton
58%
Bernie Sanders
17%
Martin O'Malley 2%
Lincoln Chafee 0%
Jim Webb 0%
Undecided 23%
Gravis Marketing[31]

Margin of error: ± 3%
Sample size: 881

June 16–20, 2015 Hillary Clinton
64.8%
Bernie Sanders
20.6%
Martin O'Malley 2.1%
Bill De Blasio 1.7%
Jim Webb 0.9%
Lincoln Chafee 0.4%
Unsure 9.5%
Quinnipiac University[32]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 378

June 4–15, 2015 Hillary Clinton
64%
Joe Biden
9%
Bernie Sanders 8%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Lincoln Chafee 0%
Jim Webb 0%
Other 1%
Wouldn't vote 5%
Undecided 13%
Quinnipiac University[33]

Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 344

March 17–28, 2015 Hillary Clinton
65%
Joe Biden
11%
Elizabeth Warren 7%
Bernie Sanders 3%
Jim Webb 2%
Martin O'Malley 0%
Other 1%
Wouldn't vote 2%
Undecided 10%
Joe Biden
42%
Elizabeth Warren
19%
Bernie Sanders 6%
Jim Webb 3%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Other 2%
Wouldn't vote 4%
Undecided 22%
Public Policy Polling[34]

Margin of error: ± 5.1%
Sample size: 371

March 19–22, 2015 Hillary Clinton
58%
Joe Biden
14%
Elizabeth Warren 10%
Bernie Sanders 3%
Martin O'Malley 2%
Jim Webb 1%
Other/Undecided 11%
[35]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 435

February 24–25, 2015 Hillary Clinton
52%
Elizabeth Warren
14%
Joe Biden 9%
Martin O'Malley 2%
Mark Warner 2%
Jim Webb 2%
Undecided 18%
Quinnipiac University[36]

Margin of error: ± 5.5%
Sample size: 322

January 22 – February 1, 2015 Hillary Clinton
61%
Joe Biden
11%
Elizabeth Warren 9%
Bernie Sanders 2%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Jim Webb 1%
Other 2%
Wouldn't vote 4%
Undecided 10%
Joe Biden
39%
Elizabeth Warren
22%
Bernie Sanders 3%
Martin O'Malley 2%
Jim Webb 2%
Other 4%
Wouldn't vote 5%
Undecided 23%
Polls in 2014
Poll source Date 1st 2nd Other
Quinnipiac University[37]

Margin of error: ± 4.6%
Sample size: 457

July 17–21, 2014 Hillary Clinton
67%
Joe Biden
8%
Elizabeth Warren 8%
Andrew Cuomo 1%
Martin O'Malley 0%
Brian Schweitzer 0%
Other 1%
Wouldn't vote 3%
Undecided 11%
Public Policy Polling[38]

Margin of error: ± 6.2%
Sample size: 251

June 6–9, 2014 Hillary Clinton
66%
Elizabeth Warren
8%
Joe Biden 7%
Cory Booker 5%
Andrew Cuomo 4%
Mark Warner 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 0%
Martin O'Malley 0%
Brian Schweitzer 0%
Someone else/Undecided 9%
Quinnipiac University[39]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 501

April 23–28, 2014 Hillary Clinton
64%
Joe Biden
11%
Elizabeth Warren 6%
Andrew Cuomo 1%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Brian Schweitzer 1%
Other 1%
Wouldn't vote 3%
Undecided 13%
Quinnipiac University[40]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 529

January 22–27, 2014 Hillary Clinton
64%
Joe Biden
9%
Elizabeth Warren 5%
Andrew Cuomo 1%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Mark Warner 1%
Other 2%
Wouldn't vote 2%
Undecided 16%
Polls in 2013
Poll source Date 1st 2nd Other
Quinnipiac University[41]

Margin of error: ± 4.2%
Sample size: 544

November 12–17, 2013 Hillary Clinton
70%
Joe Biden
9%
Elizabeth Warren 4%
Andrew Cuomo 2%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Mark Warner 1%
Other 2%
Wouldn't vote 2%
Undecided 10%
Public Policy Polling[42]

Margin of error: ± 5.7%
Sample size: 300

March 15–18, 2013 Hillary Clinton
62%
Joe Biden
12%
Andrew Cuomo 5%
Elizabeth Warren 3%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Brian Schweitzer 1%
Mark Warner 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 0%
Deval Patrick 0%
Someone Else/Undecided 14%
Public Policy Polling[43]

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 401

January 11–13, 2013 Hillary Clinton
65%
Joe Biden
15%
Andrew Cuomo 4%
Elizabeth Warren 4%
Deval Patrick 1%
Mark Warner 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 0%
Martin O'Malley 0%
Brian Schweitzer 0%
Someone Else/Undecided 11%
Andrew Cuomo
22%
Elizabeth Warren
15%
Deval Patrick 5%
Martin O'Malley 4%
Kirsten Gillibrand 3%
Mark Warner 2%
Brian Schweitzer 1%
Someone Else/Undecided 48%

Results

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e • d 2016 Democratic Party's presidential nominating process in Florida
– Summary of results –
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 1,101,414 64.44% 141 24 165
Bernie Sanders 568,839 33.28% 73 2 75
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 38,930 2.28%
Uncommitted 0 6 6
Total 1,709,183 100% 214 32 246
Source: [44][45]

Results by district

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Florida Democratic primary, March 15, 2016
District Delegates Votes Clinton Votes Sanders Votes Qualified Clinton delegates Sanders delegates
1 3 26987 18497 45484 2 1
2 6 50190 34073 84263 4 2
3 4 32070 27974 60044 2 2
4 4 33920 22765 56685 2 2
5 6 55855 18639 74494 4 2
6 5 37995 24443 62438 3 2
7 5 37410 26795 64205 3 2
8 5 39384 24376 63760 3 2
9 5 40609 19880 60489 3 2
10 5 38011 22213 60224 3 2
11 5 38061 21590 59651 3 2
12 5 35498 23172 58670 3 2
13 6 44121 29707 73828 4 2
14 6 49146 23617 72763 4 2
15 5 32793 20712 53505 3 2
16 6 43921 25856 69777 4 2
17 4 29899 17045 46944 3 1
18 6 42804 20620 63424 4 2
19 4 31958 17235 49193 3 1
20 7 61998 15761 77759 6 1
21 7 57723 22100 79823 5 2
22 6 49602 22209 71811 4 2
23 6 44510 19974 64484 4 2
24 8 59274 13893 73167 6 2
25 3 24897 9287 34184 2 1
26 4 32069 14148 46217 3 1
27 4 30709 12258 42967 3 1
Total 140 1101414 568839 1670253 93 47
PLEO 28 1101414 568839 1670253 18 10
At Large 46 1101414 568839 1670253 30 16
Gr. Total 214 1101414 568839 1670253 141 73
Total vote 64.44% 33.28% 1,709,183
Source: Florida Department of State Division of Elections

Results by county

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County[46] Clinton Sanders
# % # %
Alachua 17,733 49.2% 17,590 48.8%
Baker 654 38.5% 805 47.4%
Bay 5,209 52.6% 4,131 41.7%
Bradford 1,056 48.7% 908 41.8%
Brevard 31,835 59.7% 20,083 37.7%
Broward 132,527 72.5% 48,330 26.4%
Calhoun 437 36.2% 545 45.2%
Charlotte 8,125 62.1% 4,634 35.4%
Citrus 6,863 56.3% 4,776 39.2%
Clay 5,345 57.1% 3,698 39.5%
Collier 12,712 66.1% 6,127 31.9%
Columbia 2,299 52.9% 1,676 38.6%
DeSoto 987 52.6% 726 38.7%
Dixie 409 40.2% 459 45.1%
Duval 58,632 67.2% 26,716 30.6%
Escambia 16,765 62.2% 9,318 34.6%
Flagler 6,152 65.8% 2,977 31.9%
Franklin 665 47.0% 647 45.7%
Gadsden 7,446 76.4% 1,944 20.0%
Gilchrist 428 37.5% 578 50.7%
Glades 387 49.9% 313 40.3%
Gulf 568 47.4% 520 43.4%
Hamilton 758 54.7% 479 34.6%
Hardee 529 52.7% 393 39.1%
Hendry 1,156 60.6% 647 33.9%
Hernando 8,882 59.6% 5,512 37.0%
Highlands 3,711 61.4% 2,054 34.0%
Hillsborough 68,936 62.8% 38,505 35.1%
Holmes 339 28.3% 619 51.7%
Indian River 6,897 62.4% 3,926 35.5%
Jackson 2,798 53.9% 1,840 35.5%
Jefferson 1,671 64.6% 762 29.5%
Lafayette 295 30.0% 501 50.9%
Lake 15,914 63.5% 8,465 33.8%
Lee 27,940 62.7% 15,624 35.0%
Leon 27,333 56.5% 19,866 41.1%
Levy 1,570 50.0% 1,354 43.1%
Liberty 316 38.0% 392 47.1%
Madison 1,542 62.4% 741 30.0%
Manatee 18,116 62.5% 10,165 35.1%
Marion 18,220 62.7% 9,892 34.1%
Martin 6,523 59.8% 4,101 37.6%
Miami-Dade 129,467 74.7% 42,009 24.3%
Monroe 4,830 55.3% 3,739 42.8%
Nassau 2,910 56.2% 2,060 39.8%
Okaloosa 4,559 52.0% 3,782 43.1%
Okeechobee 1,150 55.2% 784 37.6%
Orange 66,654 63.8% 36,639 35.1%
Osceola 16,512 68.2% 7,273 30.0%
Palm Beach 103,369 71.5% 39,314 27.2%
Pasco 21,760 58.3% 14,493 38.9%
Pinellas 63,699 60.3% 39,742 37.6%
Polk 29,328 63.0% 15,473 33.3%
Putnam 3,182 49.4% 2,747 42.7%
Santa Rosa 3,938 49.2% 3,602 45.0%
Sarasota 25,881 61.1% 15,776 37.3%
Seminole 22,069 58.3% 15,100 39.9%
St. Johns 9,734 57.0% 6,953 40.7%
St. Lucie 17,554 66.9% 8,091 30.8%
Sumter 7,022 68.1% 3,022 29.3%
Suwannee 1,475 42.2% 1,550 44.3%
Taylor 983 45.9% 907 42.4%
Union 336 36.7% 472 51.6%
Volusia 26,276 60.2% 16,170 37.1%
Wakulla 1,659 48.9% 1,424 42.0%
Walton 1,515 50.0% 1,361 44.9%
Washington 858 47.1% 781 42.9%
Total 1,101,414 64.4% 568,839 33.3%

Analysis

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Florida was generally viewed as a state Hillary Clinton would win, given her strong performance in previous contests with older voters (who comprised 65% of the Democratic electorate in Florida, the largest in any contest) and non-white voters (who made up 52% of the electorate). Clinton won the Florida Primary by 31 points, winning older voters by a margin of 71–26, and non-white voters by a margin of 74–25. Specifically, she won Hispanic/Latino voters by a margin of 68-32 (who made up 20% of the electorate), and African American voters 81-18 (who comprised 27% of the electorate). Clinton also won white voters by a narrower margin of 53–43. She won across all income and educational attainment levels.[47]

In terms of religious affiliation, Clinton won Protestants in Florida 69-29 (36% of the electorate), Catholics 69-29 (22% of the electorate), and other religious affiliations 68-31 (Jews were 4% of the electorate but were unaccounted for in exit polls). Sanders won voters who identified as agnostic/atheist 56–31. In terms of political ideology, Clinton won liberals 59-41 and moderates/conservatives 70–26. And while Clinton won Democrats 71–28, Sanders won self-identified Independents 55–41.[48]

Clinton won in Miami and along the Gold Coast 73–26, where there is a larger population of Hispanic/Latino voters who in South Florida are predominantly of Cuban or Nicaraguan descent. Clinton also won the Gulf Coast and Mid-Florida 64–35, the Tampa Bay Area 63–37, the Orlando area 62–34, and the Northern Panhandle which is whiter, more conservative and more rural by a smaller margin of 58–37.[49]

References

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  1. ^ Florida Division of Elections - Official Primary Results Archived 2016-03-16 at the Wayback Machine
  2. ^ a b Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  3. ^ Lua error in Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration at line 2172: attempt to index field '?' (a nil value).
  4. ^ Official Primary results
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  32. ^ http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/ps06182015_Sk32gth.pdf
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  34. ^ http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_FL_32415.pdf
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  38. ^ http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_FL_611.pdf
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  42. ^ Public Policy Polling
  43. ^ Public Policy Polling
  44. ^ The Green Papers
  45. ^ Florida Division of Elections - Official Primary Results
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